Jova Turns Toward the Northeast as a Strong Category Three Hurricane, October 10, 2011 (2 PM PDT)

Miami, Florida—(ENEWSPF)—October 10, 2011 – UPDATE 2 PM PDT.  The National Hurricane Center reports that Jova has turned toward the northeast as a strong Category Three Hurricane.

Watches and Warnings

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern coast of Mexico from north of Cab Corrientes northward to San Blas.

Summary of Watches and Warnings in Effect

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

  • Punta San Telmo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Lazar Cardenas northward to south of Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • North of Cab Corrientes northward to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.  For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion and 48-hour Outlook

At 200 pm PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jova was located by a United States Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft near latitude 16.8 north, longitude 106.2 west.  Jova is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue this afternoon and tonight.  A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Tuesday.   On the forecast track, the center of major Hurricane Jova will be near the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Reports from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts.  Jova is a strong Category Three Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Jova could become a Category Four Hurricane later tonight or early Tuesday.  Although some fluctuations in intensity are possible until landfall, Jova is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

Recent reports from the hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate the estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

Hazards Affecting Land

Tropical Storm conditions are expected to affect the coast of Mexico within the Hurricane and Tropical Storm warning areas by Tuesday morning.   Hurricane conditions are forecast to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by Tuesday afternoon.

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.   Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Jova is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over the states of  Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Swells generated by Jova will begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today.   These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Surface Wind Field

Click image to zoom in [Image of initial wind radii]

About this product:

This graphic shows the areas potentially being affected by the sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the latest Forecast/Advisory (indicated at the top of the figure). Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red shaded areas will be experiencing sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively.

In addition to the wind field, this graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The white dot indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone, and the dashed line shows the history of the center of the tropical cyclone. 

 Source: nhc.noaa.gov