Analysis, Commentary, Opinion, Park Forest, Politics

What Iowa and New Hampshire Do, and Do Not, Predict About the November Election

By John A. Ostenburg

While lots of media attention is given every four years to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary election, those events appear to be only minimal predictors at best of what else will occur in the presidential contests.

The first-in-the-nation status of the New Hampshire primary goes back many years, while the Iowa caucus system only came about in 1972. A look at statistics for both since 1972 doesn’t reveal much of a harbinger role for either.

The exception, of course, is in years when an incumbent president . . .

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