COVID-19, Local, Park Forest, Science

COVID-19: Novel Coronavirus to Peak in Illinois Around April 16, Report Says

COVID-19 peak projections for Illinois
COVID-19 peak projections for Illinois. (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation data visualization)

Park Forest, IL-(ENEWSPF)- The novel coronavirus crisis will peak in Illinois around April 16 with about 8,855 people in the hospital and 19 people dying every day and will last into June, according to projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.

The projections assume the continuation of “strong social distancing measures and other protective measures,” the IHME says. That would mean schools and nonessential businesses remain closed and Gov. Pritzker’s Stay-at-Home order remain in effect.

The projections show a possibility of those hospitalized between 1,570 and more than 17,000, with 8,855 being the most likely number at this point. With 14,552 hospital beds available in Illinois, a shortage due to COVID-19 cases is not expected. However, there are 1,131 ICU beds available in the state and a projected need of 1,335, showing an expected shortfall of over 200 ICU beds, according to the projections.

Current projections show a need for 721 invasive ventilators in the state.

Social distancing is helping to “flatten the curve,” according to the projections. This must continue to meet or possibly come in under current projections.

New York projections of COVID-19 cases.
New York projections of COVID-19 cases.

COVID-19 cases in New York, on the other hand, will peak around April 6 with more than 42,000 people in the hospital and just a little more than 13,000 beds available.

Illinois could see no further hospitalizations for COVID-19 after the first week of June if social distancing is maintained.

The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) Sunday announced 1,105 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 18 additional deaths.

The demographics look like this:

  • Cook County: male 50s, 2 females 60s, 2 males 70s, 3 females 70s, 2 males 80s, female 80s
  • DuPage County: male 60s
  • Kane County: male 40s, 2 males 90s
  • Kendal County: male 60s
  • LaSalle County: male 80s
  • St. Clair County: female 70s

Bond, Knox, Menard, and Montgomery counties are now reporting cases.  Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 4,596 cases, including 65 deaths, in 47 counties in Illinois.  The age of cases ranges from younger than one to 99 years.

The IHME projection indicates that Illinois will likely suffer more than 2,450 deaths in a realistic scenario.

IHME projections are based on confirmed data from the World Health Organization and state and federal governments to create a four-month statistical model.

*All data is provisional and will change.